Betting Update: 2009 Wimbledon Championships

by Bodog Sportsbook | Jul 1 2009

The early rounds are over at Wimbledon. The men's quarterfinals and women's semis are all lined up pretty much according to plan - not that there haven't been some surprises along the way.

We gave Canadian-American Jesse Levine his props last week for beating 14 seed Marat Safin in the first round as a +250 underdog. Levine rewarded our faith by dropping Pablo Cuevas (+180) in the second round before finally giving up the ghost at +435 against No. 19 seed Stanislas Wawrinka. If you're the kind of bettor that prefers to avoid the chalky favorites, Levine could be worth your early-round attention for future tournaments.

Otherwise, it's Chalk City at SW19. Here's how our top three Wimbledon favorites have carved their way into the quarterfinals.

1. Roger Federer: Yes, his quest for six Wimbledon titles is made much easier with the absence of No. 1 seed Rafael Nadal. But Federer has done his part by plowing through four opponents and dropping just a single set along the way. His title odds have shortened from 5-7 at the open to 8-15, and he's a -1400 favorite in the quarterfinals against the Croatian giant Ivo Karlovic (+675).

2. Andy Murray: The pride of Dunblane, Scotland and the overwhelming crowd favorite nearly spit the bit as a -1800 favorite against the aforementioned Wawrinka (+950) in the fourth round. But Murray dug deep for a five-set win under the new roof at Centre Court. Those sauna-like conditions might take some of the verve out of his step as a -1400 chalk over Juan Carlos Ferrero (+675); Murray's title odds have slipped from 12-5 to 11-4.

3. Novak Djokovic: It hasn't been easy, but Djokovic has impressed enough to see his Wimbledon odds bounce back to their opening level of 12-1 (after falling to 14-1 following the first round). Now he has a very difficult quarterfinal matchup at -275 against No. 24 seed Tommy Haas (+200), who beat Djokovic 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-1 at their Wimby tune-up in Haas' native Germany.

The remaining quarterfinal is a battle between two men who have seen better days: No. 6 seed Andy Roddick (-275) and 2002 Wimbledon champion Lleyton Hewitt (+200). The Aussie holds a 6-5 career advantage over Roddick, although he hasn't beaten him in four attempts since 2005 and is 0-2 lifetime on grass.

The women's draw has been a complete chalkeater's delight - except for third-favorite Maria Sharapova, who was 8-1 at the open despite going into Wimbledon with shoulder problems and the No. 24 seed. That placement was already generous, given her No. 59 ranking on the WTA Tour. Sharapova duly lost in three sets to Gisela Dulko (+350) in the second round. No such problems for the Williams sisters, or for world No. 1 Dinara Safina.

1. Serena Williams: Serena has yet to lose a set at Wimbledon, breezing into the semis with a 6-2, 6-3 victory over No. 8 seed Victoria Azarenka (+300). The two-time Wimbledon champion opened at 9-4 to make it three; she's now pegged at 4-5 and faces the easier semifinal opponent in No. 4 Elena Dementieva (+375). Easier on paper, that is. Dementieva is 3-5 lifetime against Serena, but 3-1 in their last four matches - on carpet and hardcourt. Serena won their only contest on grass at the 2003 Wimbledon Championships, where she beat Venus in the finals for the second year in a row.

2. Venus Williams: The elder Williams sister continues to hold betting value (compared to Serena) at 5-4, up from 3-1 at the open. The punters across the pond have fallen into line after originally making five-time champion Venus their favorite - and it's a fair cop, given than Safina (+330) lies in wait in the semis.

3. Dinara Safina: She's been to the finals at both the Australian and French Opens, but her 15 double-faults against Sabine Lisicki (+180) on Tuesday don't inspire a lot of confidence in Safina's chances to make the finals at Wimbledon. Venus downed Safina twice on hard surfaces in 2008, while the Russian replied this year with a three-set victory on the clay courts of Rome. Those results are indicative of their different styles; like Dementieva, Safina is a very strong baseline player, while Williams has the hardest serve in the game (even harder than many of the top men) and is nimble around the net.