2010 Academy Awards Betting: Odds to Win Best Picture Oscar

by Bodog Sportsbook | Dec 17 2009

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The Golden Globe Award nominations are out - which means it's time to bet on the 2010 Academy Award Best Picture winner at Bodog's entertainment odds.

Academy Award nominations will be released Feb. 2, with the winners announced on March 7.

The Golden Globes are nice, but it's Oscar that everyone in Hollywood wants to take home. And this year 10 movies as opposed to five will be up for an Oscar for Best Picture. Expanding the field to 10 is new but not original. During the first few decades of the Academy Awards - this year will be the 82nd edition - there often were more than five films up for the honor. For example, in the 1930s and '40s the Academy recognized between eight and 12 Best Picture nominees each year - 1943 was the final year to include such a big field.

Some think this change back to that format is a nod to trying to get more television ratings, but some believe it's because "Dark Knight" wasn't among the Best Picture finalists last year. Or maybe it's because the Golden Globes have been nominating at least 10 movies (in two different categories) for years.

Here are the five Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture -- Drama:

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Up In The Air

Here are the five Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture - Musical or Comedy:

(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

Don't go by the Golden Globes' 10 nominees in predicting your Oscar winner. During the past 10 years, the 10 (sometimes more) Globe Best Picture nominees included all five of the Academy's best picture nominees only 50 percent of the time - overall, of the 104 Globe nominees the past decade only 40 went on to be nominated for the Academy's Best Picture. The best example? In 2005, the movie "Crash" wasn't even nominated by the Golden Globes but won the Oscar for Best Picture.

However, 67.4 percent of movies that have won Best Picture at the Academy Awards also won a Golden Globe. Last year's "Slumdog Millionaire" is the only film in the past five years to have followed up a best picture at the Golden Globes with victory at the Oscars.

Here is Bodog's list of Academy Award Best Picture contenders, with odds:

Up in the Air: 3/1
Inglorious Basterds: 15/2
An Education: 7/1
The Lovely Bones: 8/1
Avatar: 31/4
Precious: 5/1
Bright Star: 15/1
Nine: 15/1
The Hurt Locker: 7/2
Up: 10/1
Invictus: 15/1
The Informant: 25/1
A Single Man: 20/1
The Last Station: 25/1
A Serious Man: 12/1
The White Ribbon: 30/1
Star Trek: 50/1
The Road: 15/1
Public Enemies: 12/1
Amelia: 25/1
Taking Woodstock: 25/1
Cheri: 15/1
Biutiful: 15/1
The Human Factor: 20/1

Upon first glance, you can all but forget about a true comedy winning the award. The last to do so was romantic comedy "Shakespeare in Love" in 1998 - and that may fit better in the romance category. Animated movies have their own category, so don't bother betting on "Up," either. Science fiction/adventure/action/epic movies also don't generally fare well for Best Picture. The last winner to fit into one of those categories was "The Return of the King" in 2003. Musicals such as "Nine" also haven't performed well in the past few decades, although "Chicago" won in 2002. The previous musical winner was "Oliver!" in 1968. The most frequent Best Picture nominee and winner category is the drama genre, while war movies and biographical films also have brought home Oscar frequently of late.

The problem with films like "Avatar," "Up in the Air" and "Invictus" is they are released so late in the year that they may not generate enough buzz in time. But then one could argue these films also would have momentum over what many consider the favorite: "The Hurt Locker," which was released this summer in the U.S. (and falls into the war category). Of course, "Slumdog Millionaire" wasn't widely released in the U.S. until January of this year! The winner the year before, "No Country for Old Men" wasn't widely released in this country until late November.

One tip would be to wager on one of the Best Picture nominees that also includes at least one acting nomination (lead or supporting). Only 11 Best Picture winners have won the Oscar without taking home a single acting nomination - the last one was "Slumdog Millionaire."