Boxing Betting Lines & Odds: Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto
by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 13 2009
Manny "Pac-Man" Pacquiao is the No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world. But have the
boxing odds swung too far in his direction?
Pacquiao will be tested this Saturday (9:00 p.m. ET on HBO pay-per-view) by Miguel Angel "Junito" Cotto in a catchweight bout at 145 pounds for Cotto's WBO Welterweight title. From a fan perspective, it's a step below the potential fight between Pacquiao and "Sugar" Shane Mosley, the WBA champion who tried to lure Pac-Man into a big-money bout, but was outmaneuvered by Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum. Both Pacquiao and Cotto fight for Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotion; Mosley is with Golden Boy.
Don't let the usual business shenanigans fool you. Although the
boxing lines have the lower-profile Cotto pegged as a +215 underdog at the MGM Grand, he beat Mosley in 2007. This is reportedly the first time Cotto will go into a fight as the underdog. The Puerto Rico native has a pro record of 34-1, the lone defeat coming at the hands of Antonio Margarito in 2008. That loss is now viewed with suspicion after Margarito was caught trying to use Plaster of Paris hand-wraps in his January 2009 fight with Mosley.
Pacquiao deserves every ounce of praise he receives as the top fighter in the sport. He holds a record of 54-3-2, winning his last 10 fights in a row dating back to 2005 and defeating the likes of Erik Morales (avenging his most recent loss), Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. Pacquiao is a hero in his native Philippines and is listed on this year's Time 100 most influential people in the world. This is great for Pacquiao himself, but it does nothing for his betting value on Saturday.
While both fighters land some heavy lumber, this bout can be fairly described as being one of Pacquiao's speed versus Cotto's power. Cotto isn't glacial in the ring by any means, and he holds victories over the swifter Mosley and over Zab Judah in 2007, but nobody can compare to Pacquiao when it comes to hops. On the flipside, Pac-Man hasn't faced a top fighter who can absorb as much punishment as Cotto, let alone dish it out. Cotto also has the advantage of being able to shift between orthodox and southpaw stances.
If a boxer is only as good as the people surrounding him, then Pacquiao is the better fighter in this bout. He's been guided by three-time Trainer of the Year Freddie Roach for over seven years, while Cotto went through an acrimonious split with his trainer and uncle Evangelista Cotto earlier this year. Joe Santiago seconded Cotto to a very close split decision over Joshua Clottey in June. If this fight gets into the later rounds (the over/under is 9.5 rounds with the OVER priced at +105), Pacquiao is a better closer than Clottey, who may have let Cotto off the hook in their fight.
Suffice to say this looks like an epic bout on paper, with Pacquiao perhaps holding a slight advantage based on his recent results. As always, make sure to check out our boxing props and see what's available. A Pacquiao victory by decision, for example, was paying 13-4 at press time, with the public expecting a Pac-Man KO, TKO or DQ at 5-7.
