Event Feature: UFC 97 Redemption: Silva vs. Leites

by Bodog Sportsbook | Apr 16 2009

Anderson Silva has lost before. But will he ever lose again?

Not yet at least, say the betting odds for this Saturday’s UFC 97 card at the Bell Centre in Montreal. The man they call "The Spider" is a giant -625 favorite to dispose of Thales Leites in the main event and retain the middleweight title. Silva is 8-0 in the Octagon (23-4 overall) and considered the No. 1 pound-for-pound MMA fighter in the world by Sherdog. In their words, fighting ordinary challengers is no longer good enough for Silva.

Leites (+425 on Saturday) may or may not be an ordinary challenger. The native of Rio de Janeiro is 14-1 in his relatively young career, which started in 2003 at the tender age of 22. The one loss was to Martin Kampmann at The Ultimate Fighter 4 finale, Leites' first official match in the Octagon. He's 5-0 since, including a split decision last June over the talented Nate Marquardt - who lost the fight because he was docked two points for illegal strikes. That's a very thin resume to bring into a title matchup against Silva. Sherdog has Leites ranked ninth in a middleweight division that's lacking in challengers.

Upside is always welcome in a value-based betting approach. So is the clash of styles that the underdog presents: Leites is a highly skilled grappler, with eight of his 14 victories coming via submission. Silva is known primarily as a Muay Thai striker. In theory, Leites' wrestling acumen could be the kryptonite to Silva's Superman act. But we've seen the champion put away men like Marquardt and Dan Henderson without even getting into the third round. None of Silva's UFC fights have come close to going the distance.

The consensus among MMA insiders is that Silva will win this matchup by TKO in the second round, but that Leites is enough of a wild card to make this fight interesting. The big payout at +425 definitely enhances the challenger's betting value. It would be nice from a handicapping perspective if Leites had been put through the wringer on The Ultimate Fighter series like some of the other underdogs who have cashed in big-time, such as Keith Jardine (+300) over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin (+275) over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 76.

Which brings us to the No. 2 bout on the card. Liddell and Rua are facing off in light heavyweight action, a pair of ex-PRIDE fighters who are both looking for redemption - thus the name UFC 97: Redemption on the marquee. Liddell has lost three of his last four matches, a tailspin that started two years ago at the hands of Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and continued last September when Rashad Evans (another TUF alum) dropped Liddell for the Knockout of the Night at UFC 88.

Rua's transition from the PRIDE ring to the Octagon got off to a rough start when he submitted to Griffin's rear-naked choke. The former Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Muay Thai champion got some of his shine back in January when he defeated Mark Coleman by TKO in the Fight Of The Night at UFC 93. However, Coleman is 44 years old and already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame. He's not the opponent he once was.

On the surface, Rua can absorb a loss to Liddell and still muster some kind of career comeback. The same can't be said with confidence for "The Iceman." If Liddell doesn't at the very least put up a suitably strong performance in defeat, his days of big-money fights are very likely at an end. Many fight observers have already written off Liddell as being too predictable on offense - Evans told the press after his victory that Liddell was telegraphing his moves via his expressions, a major handicap in a sport where a poker face is essential. Yet Liddell remains the public darling in this matchup and a considerable favorite at -200 to Rua's +160.

If you're looking for value on the undercard, the sharp minds at UFC are once again giving the people what they want by loading up on local fighters. David Loiseau (-125) is from Montreal and the man most likely to get a home-field advantage Saturday night as he takes on Ed Herman (-105) in the middleweight division. Herman lost to Brazil's Demian Maia (-185) by technical submission when the UFC first touched down at the Bell Centre last April for UFC 83. But at least Herman has the experience of appearing on TUF 3; Loiseau's last six fights (4-2) were outside the Octagon in smaller promotions. 

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