Football Betting: NFL & NCAAF Thanksgiving Week Top Game Preview and Analysis
by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 24 2009
There's no question that bowl season is the most wonderful time of the year for
college football betting. But is it worth not having a playoff system for the national championship?
The NCAA has never actually seen fit to declare a national champion in the top division of college football. No fewer than 16 polls and 23 different stat-based mechanisms have been used over the years to unofficially crown the best team in the country, the BCS being the most recent and arguably the most accurate. But the BCS is hardly perfect. We have six undefeated teams at the top of the rankings this week:
1. Florida Gators
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Texas Longhorns
4. TCU Horned Frogs
5. Cincinnati Bearcats
6. Boise State Broncos
Florida and Alabama will likely meet for the SEC title, so if everything else goes according to script, one of those teams will go on to play Texas, with the winner recognized as the champion by most media organizations. But why Texas and not TCU? The advanced stats say the Horned Frogs rank higher in efficiency and have had the tougher strength of schedule. Sharps would love to put their football bets down on the Frogs at 8-3 ATS.
In reality, as far as sharps are concerned, the money you make during bowl season is worth just as much as the money you make in the first two weeks. And if the NCAA can make more money on advertising and television contracts under the current system than a playoff, then so be it. But that's exactly the problem. We now live in the Age of Information, and an increasing number of college football fans are informed enough to know the system is unfair. If the fans turn away - and make no mistake, they are - the money dries up.
A 16-team playoff (like the one the FCS uses) would put integrity back into the system. There will always be snubs, but in this scenario the argument would be over who's the real No. 16 team and not who's No. 1. Handicappers would approve because of the sheer number of games: 31, only a shade down from the 34 we're going to have this year. And you have to admit, those first-round games would be a lot more meaningful and draw a lot more action than - ugh - the “Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.”
Thursday: No. 3 Texas at Texas A&M (8:00 p.m., ESPN)
The Longhorns (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) were having trouble covering big chalk at the start of the season, but have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five. There'll be another fat spread in Lubbock this week against the Aggies (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS); however, watch out for this rivalry game. A&M pulled off the upset in both 2006 (at +14) and 2007 (at +7).
Friday: No. 2 Alabama at Auburn (2:30 p.m., CBS)
This is another potential land mine on the road. The Crimson Tide (11-0 SU, 7-4 ATS) are relatively rested after playing the FCS Chattanooga Mocs, but now they go into Auburn for their annual Iron Bowl matchup against the Tigers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS). Auburn was on a six-game Iron Bowl winning streak at 4-2 ATS before getting pasted 36-0 last year.
Thursday: N.Y. Giants at Denver (8:20 p.m., NFLN)
The early line has the stumbling Broncos (6-4 SU and ATS) getting seven points at home against the bumbling Giants (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS). Denver has lost four straight, while New York snapped a four-game losing streak with an overtime win against Atlanta. But the G-Men still haven't covered since crushing Oakland in Week 5.
Sunday: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (8:20 p.m., NBC)
Bettors will be paying close attention to this one. Pittsburgh (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) is in a QB quandary with Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) and Charlie Batch (wrist) both injured. Big Ben is expected to face the Ravens (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS), but former Oregon star Dennis Dixon could make his NFL debut.
Monday: New England at New Orleans (8:30 p.m., ESPN)
Is this the end of the road for the Saints (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) and their unbeaten streak? They've had a very soft schedule up until now, while the Patriots (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) nearly beat the Colts two weeks ago and took the then-undefeated Broncos to overtime before losing in Week 5. The Saints are favored by three points at the Superdome.
