Some lessons are more painful to learn than others. Anyone who lost his shirt in the Bernard L. Madoff Ponzi scheme can now testify to two of the most important rules of investing: be informed, and diversify.
This is where our Bodog Live sports betting feature flexes its muscles. The ability to place a bet on every play of a single game is a powerful tool for sharp handicappers. From an information standpoint, the research you would do on a standard pointspread bet in football or basketball is also the foundation you need to make an educated live betting wager. The deeper you go with your analysis – individual players, coaching strategies, historical outcomes – the more you know.
But all the sports knowledge in the world won’t help you if you can’t manage your bankroll. Knowledge is infinite; your time and your money are not. Staying in the black over the long term requires a diversified betting portfolio. Otherwise, you are relying on pure luck to keep from going bust.
Consider the old coin flip. Over time, your bet on the outcome will come up a winner 50 percent of the time and a loser the other 50 percent. But there will inevitably come a time when you get a string of consecutive losses that will test your bankroll – especially if you try to go “double or nothing” and recoup your losses from the previous bet. That’s why casinos will hand you a pencil and paper at the roulette wheel and encourage you to use a progressive betting system like the Martingale.
The roulette wheel makes money for the house because of the zero and the double-zero. In sports betting, the book makes its money by charging you vigorish – you need a success rate of 52.4 percent to break even. That’s 11 winning bets for every 10 losers, to cover the –110 price on the standard pointspread wager.
Live betting isn’t based on the pointspread; it’s more like an extended version of the Super Bowl props market, with shorter odds applied to more likely outcomes. For example, in the middle of the Week 16 NFL matchup between Arizona and New England, the Patriots offense might be pegged at +200 to call a running play. Those odds might fall to +150 in a short-yardage situation. The vigorish is factored into that price; generally speaking, the lower the risk, the lower the vig.
A sharp, diversified approach to live betting will lean heavily on low-risk situations, like a successful Stephen Gostkowski field-goal attempt from inside the 30, or the Cardinals running a passing play. There will be the occasional honked figgie (Gostkowski is 8-for-9 between 20-29 yards this year) or a Tim Hightower rush (five against Minnesota in Week 15), just like the roulette wheel will eventually come up 0 or 00. You minimize your exposure by playing, say, 25 of these low-risk situations at one unit apiece, rather than betting the farm on Kurt Warner to throw the ball on the next play.
You can still get value on higher-risk outcomes, as well. Consult your stats; New England’s pass protection is awful this year, allowing 43 sacks – that’s an 8.4 percent sack rate. It’s a situational call, but if you see odds of +1100 or longer that Matt Cassel gets plowed into the turf, you might have a value pick on your hands. The deeper your pockets, the more leverage you have to make these riskier calls.
We’re just about to kick off the 2008-09 college football bowl season, and we’ve got live betting enabled on the 31 games out of 34 that are available on your standard sports-themed U.S. cable television package. Welcome to betting heaven.
BODOG is a registered trademark, used under license. All Rights Reserved. For more information on the Bodog branded ventures go to BodogBrand.com.
Bodog Online Poker & Online Casino & Sportsbook.
Bodog is an online gambling site offering online sports betting, Las Vegas style casino games and online poker with great betting odds, fantastic customer service and fast payouts.
