NFL Betting: Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

by Bodog Sportsbook | Sep 21 2009

If you're going to bet on football, make sure your team has some protection.

We're not talking about the kind you buy at the drug store. But in the NFL, the offensive line plays much the same role - the last thing you want is for your shield to break. Fans of the Miami Dolphins know this all too well after watching Chad Pennington absorb four sacks in last week's 19-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons (-4). Atlanta DE John Abraham ran directly through Dolphins LT Jake Long - about three inches and 50 pounds bigger than Abraham - and squashed Pennington not once, but twice.

A lot of the chatter heading into Monday night's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN) has to do with Long and whether he'll be able to stop Colts DE Dwight Freeney from turning Pennington into mulch. But protection isn't just about keeping your quarterback upright. It's also about run blocking (which is actually Long's specialty), and the Indianapolis offensive line hasn't been doing a particularly good job of opening up lanes for RB Joseph Addai. He ran for just 42 yards on 17 carries in last week's 14-12 nailbiter over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who covered as 6.5-point road dogs.

Monday night's NFL odds at press time had the Dolphins getting 3.5 points at home (with –115 vigorish), or +150 on the moneyline. The total was 42 points. Considering the season openers for Miami and Indianapolis each landed on 26 points, it would be natural to go with the under yet again for Week 2. The offensive lines aren't up to snuff, and both teams have plenty to offer on defense.

This is where the sharps come in en masse and remind you that it's also natural for bettors to overreact to what they saw in Week 1. Adjustments will be made, after all. Dolphins coach Tony Sparano was the starting center for four years at the Division II University of New Haven. He started his coaching career there working with the offensive line after graduating in 1986. Sparano has reportedly been working directly with Long to prepare for Monday night's matchup against Freeney, who, like Abraham, is one of the smaller and quicker defensive ends in the league.

Long's no tackling dummy either, despite his impersonation of one against the Falcons. The first overall pick in the 2008 draft went on to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie after allowing just 2.5 sacks all year. But the scouting buzz on Long going into the draft was that he'd make a better right tackle. He played both left and right with the Michigan Wolverines, but left tackle is a priority position - not to mention one of the most undervalued by the betting public.

Miami also wanted the opportunity to shift Vernon Carey to his natural position at right tackle, but now Carey is having his own trouble dealing with speedier defensive ends. That doesn't bode well for Monday night, when Carey will have his hands full with Robert Mathis, yet another smallish pass-rushing demon (6-foot-2, 245 pounds) who posted a career-high 11.5 sacks last year.

It won't just be Freeney and Mathis bringing the heat, either. The Colts have shown some aggressive blitz packages under new defensive co-ordinator Larry Coyer, who took over from Ron Meeks (now with the Carolina Panthers) after the end of former head coach Tony Dungy's tenure. Coyer was a star linebacker at Marshall in the early 1960s and, like Sparano, coached his former position at his alma mater following his graduation. He's wasted little time moving away from Dungy's Tampa 2 defense, supporting his linemen by sending any number of secondary players after the quarterback. It worked in the season opener; Jacksonville's David Garrard was hurried into a 14-of-28 passing day for only 122 yards and zero touchdowns. And that was with stud safety Bob Sanders (knee) out of the lineup.

Pennington is a very accurate passer, as we saw in Week 1 when he connected on 21 of his 29 passes. But all those receptions added up to just 176 yards. He's not a threat to go deep, which will only embolden Coyer to release the hounds. With the offensive line yet to jell, and the running game stuck in neutral, there's very little from an Xs and Os standpoint to suggest Miami will move the ball on Monday night. Colts QB Peyton Manning has a prime opportunity to burn the vulnerable Dolphins secondary and pick up Win No. 119 to break Johnny Unitas' team record. We'll be there with live betting available on every play.