NBA Betting: Best and Worst Bets for Week 18

by Bodog Sportsbook | Feb 28 2008

Amazing how quickly momentum can shift in the NBA.

After my Week 16 rankings on Feb. 14, three teams struggling against the spread - the Suns, Mavs and Cavs - all made trades in an attempt to prepare for the second half. All three have gained a needed boost in the championship chase from the moves. In the betting world, however, their improvement remains to be seen.

The Rockets were a cash cow from the break all the way up to about 48 hours ago. Now, a fractured Yao Ming means they don't even have the right to sniff my top five.

The only consistent squad since mid-February to present has been the Lakers. Also, be on the lookout for the San Antonio Spurs. Those crafty, old ballers are making their annual second-half push.

BEST BETS

5. Chicago Bulls 24-32 ATS (Last 10: 7-3)

Look, I know the Bulls suck. But believe it or not, they're just 2.5 games back of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and have been one of the hotter teams before and after the All-Star break. They've gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and won five of those on the road. Take a shot on them while the team is still inspired by the recent acquisition of Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden.

4. Detroit Pistons 33-23-1 ATS (Last 10: 5-5)

Detroit had a rough start to their second half with a blowout at the hands of the Magic and lost to lottery-bound Milwaukee. But it looks like they've taken the losses to heart and are making an effort to finish their season strong. They've won their last three in a row ATS.

3. San Antonio Spurs 27-27-1 ATS (Last 10: 7-3)

They're old, unemotional and their jerseys have a color combination that seems tailormade to put you and their opponents to sleep. But here they come. They've won 10 of their last 11 and seven of 11 ATS. The best part is that Tony Parker and his 18.6 points and six dimes per game just returned from injury, which means that this squad is actually going to get better as the season progresses. Cash in on their play in the second half.

2. Orlando Magic 37-21-1 ATS (Last 10: 6-4)

Superman is in the building! The Magic seem to have piggybacked Dwight Howard's superstar-making All-Star weekend into a hot start to the second half. They've won four of five since the break and 4-1 ATS. Funny thing is that in the end, their success doesn't all boil down to how many dunks and boards Howard grabs in a game. It's the three ball. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when they make 10 or more shots from downtown.

1. Los Angeles Lakers 36-19-1 ATS  (Last 10: 8-2)

Trouble could be brewing for Lakers bettors. They're good... maybe too good. They've seen oddsmakers balloon four of their last five spreads to double digits. On Tuesday, they were 15.5-point favorites versus the Portland Trail Blazers and failed to cover. Still, they're too hot to abandon until they go on an ATS losing streak. The Lakers management and perhaps the entire Western Conference have given Kobe Bryant something he's been missing since Shaquille O'Neal left for Miami: hope. He'll keep pushing this squad until he has his fourth ring.

BAD BETS

5. Charlotte Bobcats 22-33-1 (Last 10: 2-7-1)

We are three years into the existence of the Charlotte Bobcats, and can anyone really say this team has anything or anyone to build around? Center and second pick overall Emeka Okafor is not the franchise player they thought he was. In fact, there's not one player on the team you can actually build a competitive team with. In my eyes, this team needs to bite the bullet and start over. In the meantime, they should maintain their status as a bad bet.

4. Golden State Warriors 22-33 (Last 10: 3-7)

I'm not sure that I've seen a team that wins as much as the Warriors but loses ATS so consistently. In the last 10 games, they're 7-3 straight up but 3-7 ATS, and eight of the games in question have been at home. At least they're still solid versus the total. They've gone over in eight of 10.

3. New Jersey Nets 22-34 (Last 10: 4-6)

The good news is that they haven't been horrible since Kidd's departure, going 2-3 ATS. But trust me, this team is headed for a huge downfall once their we-can-do-it-without-Kidd fantasy is over. Plus, Vince Carter can only play hard for so long before he starts settling for fadeaway jumpers and bad defense.

2. Memphis Grizzlies 24-32 (Last 10: 3-7)

Poor, poor Grizzlies. Their roster has been pillaged to the point where they're counting on 2003 flop Darko Milicic for production. Mike Conley Jr. and Rudy Gay look promising, but the way this franchise is going, they might as well ship the whole team back to Vancouver, Canada. At least people were still showing up to see this team suck.

1. Miami Heat 19-35-1 (Last 10: 3-7)

I really expected the acquisition of Shawn Marion to pay immediate dividends for the Heat, but I was wrong. They're just as bad with a 1-5 record since his arrival and will likely hover in my bottom five for the remainder of the season. With two stars like Dwyane Wade and Marion on the team, their problem has to be the role players. Guard Ricky Davis averages 13.1 points per game, but he has been inconsistent all year. Power forward Udonis Haslem has two moves on offense: jumpshot from the baseline and jumpshot from the foul line. And the rest (Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, Earl Barron, Alexander Johnson and Chris Quinn) would have trouble starting in Europe.