NFL Betting: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 2 2009
Now that the Denver Broncos have finally been tamed, there's only one team left that has cleared every single
NFL betting line this season: the New Orleans Saints at a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Will that distinction last beyond Monday night?
It won't be easy. The Saints are making their first of two appearances this year on Monday Night Football, and they're laying a big fat 12 points at home against the very competitive Atlanta Falcons (4-2 SU and ATS). Yes, 12 points. To put that in perspective, the Saints started the year as –14 favorites at the Superdome against the Detroit Lions, who failed to win a single game in 2008.
Oddsmakers have had a devil of a time trying to keep up with the favorites this year. Five of Sunday's games saw double-digit NFL spreads, and the underdogs took advantage by going 3-2 ATS, on top of the 4-3 record they posted in the remaining seven games. The betting public generally sides with the favorites; the tremendously popular Saints are no exceptions, pulling in about three-quarters of the action as we went to press.
You can see why. Besides being undefeated this year, the Saints are the highest scoring team in the NFL at 39.7 points per game. Quarterback Drew Brees (14 TDs, five INTs) is third in passer rating at 106.9, and he leads the league with 7.1 percent of his passes going into the end zone. The Saints also have a highly effective rushing attack with the three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas (5.6 yards per carry), Mike Bell (4.8 yards) and former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush (3.9 yards). It's a very entertaining offense for football fans to watch.
But this is hardly a one-dimensional team. New Orleans has made a dramatic improvement on defense this year, specifically downfield, where the offseason signings of safety Darren Sharper and cornerback Jabari Greer have raised the Saints from No. 23 to No. 1 in defensive efficiency against the pass. This is how they've managed to win each of their six games by at least 12 points.
The Falcons have a hotshot QB of their own in Matt Ryan, the former Heisman candidate from Boston College who won offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2008. Ryan's off to another great start with 11 TD passes, six INTs and a passer rating of 90.2. But we seem to have a glut of quality quarterbacks in 2009 - Ryan is ranked 14th in the NFL in passer rating. Only nine QBs managed to top the 90.0 mark last year.
The rest of the Atlanta offense has been surprisingly mediocre. The addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez (27 catches, three TDs) hasn't done nearly enough to offset the downgrade in production from running back Michael Turner:
Turner 2008: 106.2 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, 17 TDs, three fumbles
Turner 2009: 67.2 yards per game, 3.4 yards per carry, seven TDs, four fumbles
Not only that, the Falcons have yet to make the same giant leap on defense that the Saints have. The run defense is better than it was in 2008, moving from No. 25 to No. 13 in the efficiency rankings, but that's still an average unit preparing to face the Thomas-Bell-Bush triumvirate. And losing cornerback Brian Williams (torn ACL) for the season has taken a sizeable chunk out of Atlanta's ability to defend the pass. The Dallas Cowboys (-5.5 at home) had no problems lighting up the Williams-free Falcons in last week's 37-21 victory.
We saw Atlanta do a very good job of containing the Saints in Ryan's rookie year, splitting a pair of games home and away and losing by only four points at the Superdome - barely missing the cover as a 3-point puppy. What a difference a year makes. The very large total of 55 points for this year's matchup suggests the Saints have enough offensive clout to cover the double-digit spread and make a favorite-over parlay a credible betting option. As always, we'll have
live betting available for every play as the usual suspects at ESPN provide their trademark MNF coverage starting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
