NFL Betting: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

by Bodog Sportsbook | Oct 19 2009

Even the sharps can get it wrong sometimes. The football betting buzz heading into the 2009 NFL season was on the San Diego Chargers, who figured to improve on last year's 8-8 record (7-8-1 ATS) and make a serious run at the Super Bowl. The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, were thought to be in disarray after trading away QB Jay Cutler in an epic public-relations nightmare.

We all know how that's turned out. The Broncos are undefeated at 5-0 SU and ATS. The Chargers are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. And if Denver wins Monday night at the former Jack Murphy Stadium, it'll take a second straight monumental comeback by the Chargers just to make the playoffs.

The key to San Diego's expectations this year was the return of Shawne Merriman, one of the most fearsome outside linebackers ever to roam the earth. Merriman missed 2008 with torn knee ligaments after making the Pro Bowl in each of his first three seasons. He had 39.5 sacks in those three years, but has zero so far in 2009 as he tries to shake off the effects of a groin injury. But his slow start is no surprise; Merriman told reporters during training camp that it could be “maybe October” before he returned to full strength. He promises to come out Monday with more verve after the Chargers had the bye in Week 5.

Chargers fans certainly hope so. Their defense fell from No. 6 in the league in efficiency in 2007 to No. 20 last year, and it's taken another dip to No. 29 in 2009. Even if Merriman gets back to his old self, San Diego is still without nose tackle Jamal Williams. He tore his triceps before the Week 2 game versus Baltimore and was put on injured reserve. Williams is one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, playing a very important position that gets very little media attention. The Chargers are last in the league in run defense without his 6-foot-3, 350-pound frame clogging the middle. And yet they're 3.5-point favorites (+105) against Denver as we go to press - check Bodog Sports for the latest NFL odds on this critical matchup.

Denver has a reputation as being a running team, and the return of Correll Buckhalter (ankle) to duty this week should make life easier for breakout rookie Knowshon Moreno (4.2 yards per carry), the Broncos' first-round pick from the Georgia Bulldogs. But Denver's strength this year has been through the air. Trading the popular Cutler for Kyle Orton (seven TDs, one INT), who improved steadily in his years with the Chicago Bears, has turned out pretty well for the Broncos so far - and they got a pair of first-round picks to boot. Orton was ranked No. 8 in value per play at Football Outsiders going into Week 6, one spot behind Tom Brady and well ahead of both Cutler (No. 25, but rising) and Chargers QB Philip Rivers (No. 14).

Rivers is going to have his hands full Monday night. While the Broncos have been transformed offensively under new head coach Josh McDaniels, their improvement on defense under new co-ordinator Mike Nolan has been that much more impressive. Nolan held the same job successfully with Baltimore before trying his hand as the head coach in San Francisco. That didn't work out too well. But Nolan has Denver running the 3-4 defense and holding opponents to just 8.6 points per game, the lowest in the NFL. All five of their games this year have gone under.

Much has been made of the virtual disappearance of former MVP LaDainian Tomlinson (2.5 yards per carry) from the San Diego offense, but that's life for a 30-year-old running back. That's also what happens when a team loses its starting center. Nick Hardwick, who was named to the Pro Bowl in 2006, is out until December with an ankle injury, leaving Tomlinson and new No. 1 RB Darren Sproles (2.4 yards per carry) with some of the worst run blocking in the NFL.

The Williams and Hardwick injuries are exactly the kind handicappers need to recognize when they browse the injury reports. The Chargers may be 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in this matchup over the past three years, but these are definitely not the same two teams taking the field Monday night.

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