NFL Betting: Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

by Bodog Sportsbook | Sep 28 2009

Everybody knows the most important player to worry about in football betting is the quarterback. But some people forget there are 42 other players on the roster.

This week's episode of Monday Night Football features two quarterbacks who could use a hug right now. Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys is being raked over the coals for the unpardonable sin of losing 33-31 last week to the rival New York Giants (+3). The situation is worse for Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers; Delhomme threw four interceptions in the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, an embarrassing 38-10 final with the Panthers priced as 1-point home dogs.

No, the sky is not falling for either quarterback. Delhomme had a good game in Week 2 (308 passing yards, one TD, one INT) against the Atlanta Falcons (-6 at home), but it wasn't quite enough in a 28-20 defeat. His 82.2 passer rating for that contest is consistent with his 84.2 career rating. As for Romo and his three picks against the Giants - stuff happens. Romo had a three-INT game last year against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and another in 2007 against the Eagles. The common thread: three very good defensive teams.

You can't lump the Panthers in with that group. They haven't had an elite defense since 2006, when they finished fourth overall in team efficiency. Former Pro Bowl linebacker Dan Morgan suffered a torn Achilles tendon and is now retired. Cornerback Chris Gamble went from seven picks in 2005 to one in 2007. And things are that much tougher this year with nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu (Achilles) out for the season and LB Na'il Diggs (ribs) missing from the strong side on Monday night. This overrated and injury-ravaged defense should be foremost in your mind when considering your football bet.

Romo should have one of his better nights picking apart this secondary. He's gotten premium protection thus far from his offensive line, getting sacked just once and already finding four different receivers for touchdowns. But the real pride of the offense has been the running game, humming on all cylinders at an amazing 7.0 yards per carry (first in the NFL). This is based on a small sample size of two games, mind you, and it looks like RB Marion Barber (quad) might not be able to play this week. Not a problem; Felix Jones (seven carries, 96 yards versus the Giants) is a highly promising tailback who remains somewhat under the radar after missing much of his rookie 2008 season.

Even with Romo's hiccups against New York, the Cowboys are 9-point favorites (-105) at press time with a total of 48. You can also get Dallas at –380 on the moneyline compared to Carolina at +290. The Cowboys won each of their last three meetings on the road at 2-1 ATS; since 2000, Dallas is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the regular season. The over/under is split at three apiece, but there are enough over trends on this matchup to choke a horse. Among them:

8-2 in Carolina's last 10
9-1 in Carolina's last 10 against NFC teams
4-0 in Dallas' last four
7-2-1 in Dallas' last 10 Monday games

Betting trends that have to do with the day of the week usually don't carry a lot of water, but the Monday Night Football spotlight does have a way of bringing the best or the worst out of a player. It can also elevate the betting public's expectations for the home team. Dallas, a very public team, is 0-4 ATS in its last four games in Big D. This is the second regular-season game at the new Cowboys Stadium, and the home fans are still waiting for a win. The good news for Dallas supporters: The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road dogs.

Speaking of the new stadium, it's equipped with a retractable roof that by all rights should be open to the elements on Monday night. The weather forecast calls for clear skies at game time with light winds and temperatures in the mid-70s. It's the kind of weather that should make for a high-scoring game, even with all the running plays we're expecting to see. And we'll have live NFL betting available for every play. ESPN has the TV coverage starting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time.

Football season is in full swing - and the Bodog Sportsbook has all the NFL lines to keep you going!