NFL Betting: NFL Week 10 Preview
by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 11 2009
Week 9 saw a dramatic shift in online
football betting fortunes. After getting pounded for most of the 2009 season, underdogs went 10 - 3 ATS last week as the favorites fell under the weight of big chalk. New Orleans ( - 12.5) and New England ( - 10.5) both failed to cover double - digit spreads. And Tampa Bay (+9.5) pulled off a seismic upset over Green Bay, winning 38 - 28 in Josh Freeman's first start as an NFL quarterback.
We'll see if public teams like the Patriots have anything to offer this week. Our first stop, however, is Candlestick Park and the second Thursday nighter of the season.
Thursday: Chicago at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET, NFLN)
These inconsistent teams have been running hot and cold all year. The Bears (4 - 4 SU and ATS) were bad in the season opener, won three games in a row, and have lost three of their last four. The 49ers (3 - 5 SU, 5 - 2 - 1 ATS) are on a four - game losing streak after starting the year 3 - 1 SU and a perfect 4 - 0 ATS. The early NFL odds on this matchup have the 49ers as 3 - point favorites.
There are few things working properly for either club. Chicago's defense has been unacceptable this year, especially downfield, where the Bears simply do not have the talent to run coach Lovie Smith's version of the Tampa 2. The 49ers also have some issues in the secondary, but the run defense is solid with inside linebacker Patrick Willis anchoring their 3 - 4 front. San Francisco has covered four of the last five meetings (including preseason) with Chicago; the OVER has cashed in four times in a row.
Dallas at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX)
The Packers (4 - 4 SU and ATS) have the talent to beat just about anybody, but the weakness of their offensive line is becoming legendary. Even with the return of starting left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay gave up six sacks to the lowly Buccaneers – all in the second half, as Tampa Bay scored three unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The offensive line is going to continue to be a problem all season now that center Jason Spitz (back) has been placed on injured reserve. Right tackle Mark Tauscher (knee) is also expected out for the next two weeks.
These are good times for the Cowboys (6 - 2 SU, 5 - 3 ATS). They're alone atop the NFC West after dumping Philadelphia 20 - 16 last Sunday as 3 - point road dogs for their fourth straight victory. Despite a defense with some holes in it, Dallas has ridden the hot hand of QB Tony Romo (13 TD passes, five picks) and a strong running game (5.1 yards per carry) split among three capable running backs. Running should be even more important this week with temperatures at Lambeau Field approaching the freezing mark. The OVER is 3 - 1 for the Cowboys during this winning streak. They're listed as 3 - point road faves at Lambeau Field with even juice as we go to press.
New England at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m., NBC)
This matchup is one of the highlights of the regular season. The Colts (8 - 0 SU, 5 - 3 ATS) have had the better of the Patriots (6 - 2 SU, 4 - 4 ATS) in recent years, going 4 - 1 SU and ATS since the 2005 campaign. But while Indianapolis has the undefeated record this year, four of those wins were by four points or fewer. New England is second in the league with 6.9 Estimated Wins, one of the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders, while Indianapolis is close behind in fourth with 6.7 Estimated Wins.
The Colts are 3 - point home faves at even juice for Sunday Night Football. But of the two teams, they're also the more vulnerable due to injuries on defense. Linebacker Tyjuan Hagler and defensive back Marlin Jackson were both put on injured reserve last week, as was safety Bob Sanders, who had played only sparingly this year. Defensive back Kelvin Hayden is also out until Week 13 or so with a knee injury. New England's top - ranked offense with Tom Brady (16 TDs, five INTs) at the controls will stretch Indianapolis like no other team can. The underdog is 11 - 3 - 1 ATS in the last 15 meetings between the Colts and Patriots.
