NFL Monday Night Football Betting: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
by Bodog Sportsbook | Oct 26 2009
They lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL in Week 6. Will the Philadelphia Eagles get tangled up in the
football betting lines two weeks running?
Bettors don't think so. Despite getting burned in a surprise 13-9 loss to the Oakland Raiders (+14 at home), they're once again lining up heavily on the Eagles (3-2 SU and ATS) for their
Monday Night Football matchup against another of the NFL's job squads, the Washington Redskins (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS). Action was heavy enough to move the line from Philadelphia -7 to Philadelphia -7.5 late Sunday morning. The Eagles also crept up from -310 on the moneyline to -360 at press time. The total was 37.5 points.
Every half-point matters when it comes to football bets, but some matter more than others. Our newer readers should make themselves familiar with the concept of "magic numbers" in the NFL. According to a recent study of 20 seasons worth of games, the most common margin of victory was three points (15.4 percent), followed by seven (8.0 percent) and 10 (5.8 percent). In the case of Monday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, with live betting available), the difference between taking the Eagles at -7.5 instead of -7 is magnified because of the greater likelihood of Philadelphia winning by a converted touchdown.
The Eagles weren't having much trouble this year scoring at will on bad teams until they ran into the Raiders:
Week 1: Eagles 38, Panthers (+1) 10
Week 3: Chiefs (+9) 14, Eagles 34
Week 5: Buccaneers (+15.5) 14, Eagles 33
We didn't know just how bad the Panthers were until after the fact. In hindsight, they're pretty bad, but they still beat Washington 20-17 in Week 5 as 5-point home faves. That's the only cover the 'Skins have managed all season. But back to the Eagles for a moment. What happened against Oakland? Two key factors: One, the Raiders' pass defense isn't all that bad, ranked No. 12 in the NFL in efficiency. Two, the Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters in the first quarter. Philadelphia's offensive line was already thin with injuries going into Week 6, and without Peters protecting McNabb's blind side, Oakland sacked him six times and held the Eagles to 2-for-16 on third down conversions.
Those two factors won't be in place for Washington this Monday night. The ‘Skins are ranked No. 19 overall in pass defense, and Peters will be back into the lineup for Philadelphia. Not only that, it's expected guard Todd Herremans (foot) will join Peters on the left side. However, it's not all good news for the Eagles O-line. It looks like Max Jean-Gilles will have to be replaced at right guard by Nick Cole after Jean-Gilles missed Saturday's practice with a shoulder injury. Neither player is on the level of Peters or Herreman, but Cole does represent a downgrade from Jean-Gilles, and the overall depth of the line has been compromised yet again.
Philadelphia looks healthy and hale compared to Washington. Left tackle Chris Samuels might be forced to retire due to spinal stenosis, leaving the 'Skins without one of their best players. Stephon Heyer has been Samuels' replacement and is a major step back at this position, prompting the team to go out and sign free agent Levi Jones, who was cut by the Cincinnati Bengals during the offseason. Washington is also without right guard Randy Thomas (triceps) for the rest of the season. With last year's offensive line now in tatters, the Skins are rushing for 4.0 yards per carry, down from 4.4 yards in 2008. QB Jason Campbell's sack rate has increased from an already high 7.0 percent to 7.9 percent, putting him on pace for 43 sacks.
All the talk in D.C. is about how coach Jim Zorn has been stripped of play-calling duties. But the real problem isn't with Zorn - it's with the people above him in the front office, and with the people on the field they've given Zorn to work with. Owner Daniel Snyder isn't afraid to open up his checkbook to make the team better, but that money is being spent on the wrong players at the wrong positions. Perhaps he and his staff should take a page from the handicapper's bible and pay more attention to the offensive line.
