Football Betting: NFL & NCAAF Weekend Top Game Preview and Analysis

by Bodog Sportsbook | Oct 22 2009

The first BCS rankings of the year are out, and there's already controversy brewing. The computers have Florida ranked ahead of Alabama, as do most polls, but the AP writers have it the other way around. Hard to believe this is how they decide the national championship. But all this confusion is great for college football betting. The more people use these arbitrary rankings to make their betting decisions, the more dumb money the rest of us can scoop up.

We'll cover both Florida and Alabama in this weekend's betting preview before we hit the NFL. All times are Eastern; the freshest odds are just a click away at Bodog Sports.

Saturday: Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS)

There isn't as much zest in this year's "Third Saturday in October" rivalry game because the Tennessee program is still digging itself out of a hole at 3-3 SU and ATS. The Volunteers are 14-point underdogs in this year's matchup at Bryant-Denny Stadium, under mostly sunny skies with temperatures expected in the low 60s. The Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) are ranked No. 1 on the efficiency charts (the Vols are No. 41) and have the run-stuffing power to deal with Tennessee RB Montario Hardesty (5.4 yards per carry). On offense, Alabama RB Mark Ingram has vaulted into the Heisman Trophy debate with 6.7 yards per carry, including 246 yards last week against South Carolina. Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS versus Tennessee over the past five years.

Saturday: No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

The Gators (6-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) have fallen to sixth in team efficiency after last week's 23-20 win over Arkansas (a +24 road dog), which saw four Florida turnovers and six sacks. The Gators have also enjoyed a much easier strength of schedule (No. 77 in the FBS) than the Crimson Tide (No. 20), so the BCS computers look like they got it right this week. Now Florida is laying 23 points (-105) to Mississippi State (3-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) at sunny Scott Field. Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen was the offensive co-ordinator under Gators coach Urban Meyer for four years and two championships in 2006 and 2008.

Sunday: Minnesota at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m., FOX)

The Steelers (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) aren't drawing a lot of action against the Vikings (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) this week. Pittsburgh has skated by on its run defense, which would normally give the Steelers a good shot at containing RB Adrian Peterson (5.2 yards per carry), but that unit took a hit when DE Aaron Smith (shoulder) was put on injured reserve. The good news is that SS Troy Polamalu (knee) retuned to the field last week against Cleveland (a +14 road dog) and had an interception in a 27-14 victory. Pittsburgh is laying four points at home with a total of 45; there's a 50-50 chance of rain at game time after a soggy weekend.

Sunday: New Orleans at Miami (4:15 p.m., FOX)

The Saints (5-0 SU and ATS) are picking up steam after their 48-27 dismantling of the Giants (+3.5 on the road) last week. But life also looks brighter for the Dolphins (2-3 SU and ATS) after a pair of wins with QB Chad Henne (93.4 passer rating) at the controls of a resurgent Wildcat offense. Miami is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past six years including the preseason, winning every time as the underdog. That'll be the case again this week at former Dolphin Stadium with the Saints laying seven points at even vigorish. The total is 47 points; the under is on a 6-1 roll between these two clubs. The Miami forecast calls for a 30-percent chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Arizona at N.Y. Giants (8:20 p.m., NBC)

The Giants (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) will see relatively mild conditions over East Rutherford as they prepare for Sunday Night Football against the Cardinals (3-2 SU and ATS), who are coming off a 27-3 cakewalk over the wounded Seahawks (-3 at home). The G-Men are laying the full seven points with a total of 46. Arizona remains heavily tilted toward the pass, but the Giants defense is actually vulnerable against the run at No. 21 in overall efficiency. Arizona's dominant run defense (No. 1 in the league) matches up much better against New York's running game, and Giants RT Kareem McKenzie is expected to miss the game with a groin injury