NHL Playoffs: Betting Update

by Bodog Sportsbook | May 26 2009

Did you like last year's Stanley Cup final between the Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins? Let's hope so, because it looks like we're in for a rematch. Both teams have strangleholds on their respective conference finals. History buffs, though, will tell you that Detroit (1942 vs. the Maple Leafs) and Pittsburgh (1975 vs. the Islanders) are the only two NHL clubs ever to lose a series when up three games to none. Anything can happen.

Here were the Stanley Cup odds at press time on the futures market. For the latest lines, visit Bodog Sports.

Carolina 65-1
Pittsburgh   6-5
Chicago 50-1
Detroit    4-7

Eastern Conference

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

(All games at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on Versus)

Game 4: Tuesday, May 26
Game 5: Friday, May 29
Game 6: Sunday, May 31
Game 7: Tuesday, June 2

Carolina: 53-38-8, Under 52-42
Pittsburgh: 56-32-10, Over 50-44
Season Series: Pittsburgh 5-2, plus-2.50 units, Under 4-3

Carolina injuries: None
Pittsburgh injuries: None

This is turning into a cakewalk for the Penguins. They've outscored Carolina 13-6 over the past two contests, and the big story is their Big Two: Sidney Crosby (14 goals, 12 assists in 16 playoff games) and Evgeni Malkin (12 goals, 16 assists). Malkin has six goals in this series alone after registering a hat trick in Game 2. He's also broken one of Mario Lemieux' many records by scoring at least two points in six straight playoff games.

It's difficult to believe this is the same Carolina team that upset both New Jersey and Boston in the first two rounds. Pittsburgh has outshot the Hurricanes 113-87 in this series, sending so much vulcanized rubber at Cam Ward that the Carolina netminder has been largely absent from post-game conferences. Ward's .874 save percentage against the Pens is distressing, but the team in front of him isn't helping by turning the puck over. Eric Staal is also taking some heat in the local press for going scoreless in six straight games.

Western Conference

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings

Game 5: Wednesday, May 27, 7:30 p.m. (Versus)
Game 6: Saturday, May 30, 8:00 p.m. (Versus)
Game 7: Monday, June 1, 7:30 p.m. (Versus)

Chicago: 55-30-13, Over 50-44
Detroit: 62-23-12, Over 53-42
Season Series: Detroit 7-3, plus-3.18 units, Over 6-3-1

Chicago injuries: None
Detroit injuries: Nicklas Lidstrom (lower body), Pavel Datsyuk (foot), Kris Draper (groin), Tomas Kopecky (face), Andreas Lilja (concussion)

The Red Wings are actually up 3-1 in this best-of-seven affair, a deficit that is hardly insurmountable in the NHL - Washington did it to the Rangers in the first round. But this is also threatening to turn into a blowout after Detroit won Sunday's Game 4 at the United Center by a score of 6-1. The young Chicago team lost its poise in this matchup by sending the Wings on the power play eight times and allowing three goals. And this was a game where Detroit was missing star players like Lidstrom and Datsyuk. Both are listed as day-to-day.

The emotional advantage in this series shifted dramatically when Detroit defenseman Niklas Kronwall plowed top scorer Martin Havlat (29 goals in 81 games) with an open-ice shoulder tackle in the first period of Game 3. Kronwall was given a major and ejected from the game (although the hit was arguably "clean" in the Scott Stevens tradition), but Havlat also had to take a powder. Then veteran blueliner Brad Stuart laid out Havlat in the middle of Game 4, forcing yet another early departure. Havlat can't score if he's not on the ice.

Preview: Pittsburgh at Carolina, Game 4

Now that the spell has been broken for the 'Canes, Pittsburgh will be the favorite in this matchup and a likely winner after going 27-10 in the last 37 games, plus 18-5 in the last 23 playoff games as the chalk. There are some strong trends for both Carolina at home (24-9 in the past 33) and the under (8-3-4 in Carolina's last 15 as the underdog), but the morale shock of going down 0-3 in the series puts any Hurricanes trend on hold. The Pens have the over at 6-1 in their last seven games.

The relatively good news for Carolina supporters is that NHL teams trying to stave off elimination in Game 4 are 56-102 (35.4 percent) overall and a hopeful 17-22 (43.6 percent) in the conference finals. But the numbers don't look as good when the desperate team in question is playing at home: 42-80 overall (34.4 percent) and 12-18 in this round (40 percent). That might sound counterintuitive, but don't forget that the higher seed has the home-ice advantage in the series and plays Game 4 on the road. Higher seeds tend to win.

Preview: Chicago at Detroit, Game 5

Chalk is the word in Game 5 as well with the Red Wings taking a 3-1 lead back to Joe Louis Arena. Chicago's chances look even worse than Carolina's; the desperate team in this situation is 98-139 (41.4 percent) overall and 19-41 (31.7 percent) in the conference finals, but only 47-99 (32.2 percent) and a paltry 8-28 (22.2 percent) when playing on the road. The Wings are 13-5 lifetime trying to close a best-of-seven series in five games. Chicago is 2-6 attempting to avoid elimination in the same span. Those historical trends could actually make Chicago the superior betting value, provided the odds are weighed heavily enough in Detroit's favor.

Goaltending has become a sore spot for the Blackhawks at exactly the wrong time. Nikolai Khabibulin posted a .919 save percentage in the regular season to win back his No. 1 status (as an impending free agent, no less), but the Bulin Wall has shown some cracks in the postseason with a .898 percentage. Worse, he was unavailable for Game 4 due to a lower-body injury, leaving Cristobal Huet (.909 SV%) to make his first start of the playoffs. Huet was mercifully yanked early in the third period Sunday. No word as we went to press on the starter for Game 5.