Expert: Phil Kane
I like to consider myself a sharp handicapper – really, who doesn’t? So the props and futures that I like to hit are all steered toward maximum profitability. Here’s the one pure long-term prop on my Top 10 list:
Player to hit the most Home Runs in the 2009 MLB Season
Baseball lends itself to statistical analysis more than any other sport, and home runs are a highly measurable statistic. The guys at Fangraphs have published for free their CHONE projections for 2009, and they pick Ryan Howard (the favorite at 3-1) to lead the majors with 46 home runs, well ahead of Alex Rodriguez (5-1) with 39. Howard was the MLB home-run king in 2006 and 2008. I’d prefer to find a young up-and-comer from a value perspective, but I don’t see any, so I’m going with David Ortiz at 40-1, just in case he can stay healthy for a year. Ortiz is projected to finish fifth this year with 35 dingers.
The rest of my list is populated by offerings from the futures market. The best values right now are in NCAA basketball, the NBA and the NHL, because those sports will be paying out soon. A bet on the 2010 Super Bowl won’t pay out until, well, 2010.
Odds to win 2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship: Memphis (20-1)
Odds to win 2009 NBA Championship: San Antonio Spurs (8-1)
Odds to win 2009 NBA Eastern Conference Championship: Cleveland Cavaliers (7-5)
Odds to win 2009 NBA Western Conference Championship: San Antonio Spurs (4-1)
Odds to win the 2008-09 NHL Eastern Conference Championship: New Jersey Devils (4-1)
Odds to win the 2008-09 NHL Western Conference Championship: Detroit Red Wings (3-2)
Odds to win the 2008-09 Stanley Cup: New Jersey Devils (8-1)
Odds To Win The 2009 U.S. Masters: Tiger Woods (2-1)
English Carling Cup 2008-09 Outright Winner: Manchester United (2-5)
Expert: Ryan Benn
All right, Mr. Stick in the Mud. I like making money just as much as the next guy, but props and futures are fun, dammit. You know what one of the most popular props on the market is?
What will be the result of the Super Bowl XLIV Coin Toss?
That’s right, I’m playing the coin toss, and I’m picking tails at –105, because just about all the NFL players seem to choose tails. It’s, like, counterintuitive, because most regular people like to choose heads, so it makes you seem smart to choose tails. There’s a 50 percent chance I’ll get to throw this one right back in your face at the next Super Bowl party.
Speaking of which, where’s the football on your list? And I don’t mean Manchester United. The Carling Cup? We’d better be talking about Carling Bassett.
Odds to win the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV: Philadelphia Eagles (14-1)
Odds to win the 2010 BCS National Championship: USC (5-1)
Will any Horse win the 2009 Triple Crown? No (-1000)
Odds To Win The 2009 Open Championship: Padraig Harrington (10-1)
Odds to Win the 2009 World Baseball Classic: Japan (6-1)
Odds to win the 2009 World Series: Tampa Bay Rays (18-1)
Odds to win the 2009 National League Championship: San Diego Padres (35-1)
Odds to win the 2009 American League Championship: Tampa Bay Rays (9-1)
Odds to win the 2009 National League West: San Diego Padres (18-1)
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