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UFC 102 Betting Preview

by Bodog Sportsbook | Aug 28 2009

The UFC has already held two pay-per-view events called Redemption: UFC 17 and UFC 97. But it's a theme that keeps recurring in the Octagon. We'll see the careers of some big-name MMA fighters put on the line at UFC 102, this Saturday night at the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore. All six men involved in the top three matches are coming off a loss, and there won't be many more chances at this level for the veterans in the main event, former heavyweight champions Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Couture is the underdog on Saturday, as he was in his other two fights since ending his brief retirement in 2007. He was 43 years old when he stunned Tim Sylvia to regain the heavyweight strap; he's 46 now, and even Couture fans are wondering if "The Natural" has much left in the tank after he was dispatched last November by current champ Brock Lesnar. But it was a close fight for a while, which can't be said for Nogueira's loss to Frank Mir. UFC president Dana White blamed Nogueira's performance on a staph infection. Maybe so, but Mir had the right game plan. Couture has the defensive skills to stay on his feet and earn a similar result.

Jardine's UFC career has been a four-year rollercoaster ride since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter 2. His TUF background and unorthodox style give him betting value against Silva, who was destroyed by Lyoto Machida in January for his first MMA loss. Rosholt was embarrassed in his UFC debut and may never make the successful transition to the Octagon. And Maia is an excellent value on paper after earning Submission of the Night honors in four of his five UFC fights - all victories.

Here are the odds (at press time) and the recent results for everyone involved in the top four fights at UFC 102.

Middleweight: Nate Marquardt (-190) vs. Demian Maia (+150)

Feb. 21, 2009: Marquardt (-300) over Wilson Gouveia (+220) by third-round TKO
Sept. 6, 2008: Marquardt (-145) over Martin Kampmann (+115) by first-round TKO
June 7, 2008: Thales Leites (+140) over Marquardt (-170) by split decision

Feb. 21, 2009: Maia (-260) over Chael Sonnen (+200) by first-round submission
Nov. 15, 2008: Maia (-220) over Nate Quarry (+215) by first-round submission
Aug. 9, 2008: Maia (-240) over Jason MacDonald (+230) by third-round submission

Middleweight: Chris Leben (-145) vs. Jake Rosholt (+115)

Nov. 18, 2008: Michael Bisping (-215) over Leben (+175) by unanimous decision
Mar. 1, 2008: Leben (-145) over Alessio Sakara (+115) by first-round TKO
Sept. 19, 2007: Leben (+165) over Terry Martin (-205) by third-round TKO

Mar. 1, 2009: Dan Miller (-170) over Rosholt (+140) by first-round submission
Nov. 5, 2008, WEC: Rosholt (-300) over Nissen Osterneck (+200) by second-round TKO
Mar. 15, 2008, EFL: Rosholt (-250) over Chad Jay (+200) by third-round TKO

Light Heavyweight: Keith Jardine (-140) vs. Thiago Silva (+110)

Mar. 7, 2009: Quinton Jackson (-350) over Jardine (+250) by unanimous decision
Oct. 18, 2008: Jardine (+145) over Brandon Vera (-185) by split decision
May 24, 2008: Wanderlei Silva (-170) over Jardine (+140) by first-round KO

Jan. 31, 2009: Lyoto Machida (-285) over Silva (+225) by first-round KO
May 24, 2008: Silva (-650) over Antonio Mendes (+500) by first-round submission
Nov. 17, 2007: Silva (+125) over Houston Alexander (-155) by first-round TKO

Heavyweight: Randy Couture (-190) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)

Nov. 15, 2008: Brock Lesnar (-125) over Couture (+105) by second-round TKO
Aug. 25, 2007: Couture (+110) over Gabriel Gonzaga (-140) by third-round TKO
Mar. 3, 2007: Couture (+205) over Tim Sylvia (-235) by unanimous decision

Dec. 27, 2008: Frank Mir (+250) over Nogueira (-350) by second-round TKO
Feb. 2, 2008: Nogueira (-150) over Tim Sylvia (+180) by third-round submission
July 7, 2007: Nogueira (-500) over Heath Herring (+350) by unanimous decision

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