UFC 94 - Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn

by Bodog Sportsbook | Jan 29 2009

This fight’s been brewing for some time.

Georges St-Pierre and BJ Penn do battle this Saturday night (PPV starts at 10:00 p.m Eastern; for current lines, visit Bodog Sportsbook) in the main event of UFC 94 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. It’s a classic revenge fight. St-Pierre scored a somewhat controversial split decision over Penn two years ago at UFC 58, and then went on to win the welterweight title. The three judges had the fight 29-28, 28-29 and 29-28.

Penn dropped back down to lightweight and beat Joe Stevenson for the strap at UFC 80. But there’s not much left for Penn to do in that division after beating Sean Sherk last May at UFC 84, and St-Pierre has mowed through all the top welterweights the promotion has to offer. So now the people get what they want: a rematch of the fight that stole the show and launched St-Pierre into the top echelon of the sport. This has the potential to break box-office records the day before the Super Bowl. Bettors will be lining up to take either St-Pierre at –185 or Penn at +130.

The controversy about the first fight is actually pretty mild. Penn (the –130 favorite against his lesser-known opponent at the time) bloodied St-Pierre almost immediately with what appeared to be a thumb or a knuckle to the right eye, and moments later grazed the Quebecer’s nose with an uppercut. St-Pierre’s face was the proverbial crimson mask for the rest of the fight. Penn continued to pepper St-Pierre’s face with jabs; 85 of his 104 strikes landed on the day came in the first round.

However, St-Pierre scored two takedowns in each of the second and third rounds to win the bout. GSP was in controlling position almost 100 percent of the time the two locked up, both on the ground and in the clinch. Penn showed his trademark flexibility from the guard and was never in real danger, even threatening a gogoplata near the end of the match. But the takedowns themselves were the difference.

UFC betting from Bodog Sportsbook.

The nature of the original fight and the ongoing discussion about its result suggest that St-Pierre is the value pick in the rematch. Those who prefer what Penn did point to the bloody damage of his striking; however, almost all the striking was in the first round, leaving St-Pierre’s face to look like it had been through a cheese grater for the full 15 minutes. GSP actually had the striking advantage in Rounds 2 (52-29) and 3 (52-46).

Penn threw more head shots in each round (24-21, 30-26), which was certainly the right strategy against GSP, but overstates his betting value – the public is fixated on violent punches to the head. Professional wrestlers have a phrase for this: Red means green, as in, people pay to see blood. Penn was also the crowd favorite at UFC 58, which had a “USA vs. Canada” theme and was fought at Mandalay Bay. Blood and national pride may have a spillover effect on the betting line for this Saturday, but they hold little in the way of predictive power for what will happen up the street at the MGM Grand.

Not that Penn is anything but the underdog in this matchup. There are already two strikes against the otherwise talented Hawaiian before he even steps into the Octagon. One is size; Penn has a 9-1-1 record fighting at 155 pounds, but at 170 or higher, Penn is only 4-3 lifetime – although that does include a welterweight title victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 46. He gives up an inch in height and three inches in reach to St-Pierre, a natural welterweight with a 19-2-1 career record split between the UFC and local fights in Quebec.

The second demerit for Penn is his conditioning. His desire for combat is obvious, but Penn’s critics say he needs to channel more energy into his craft. Penn was visibly laboring in the third round of the previous bout, and that was coming down from fighting at 185 pounds, not up from 155. Saturday’s rematch is five rounds for the title, not three. St-Pierre has been in supreme mental and physical condition since his loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69. The deck is stacked against Penn – anything but another quick assault on St-Pierre’s suspect jaw is doomed to failure.