U.S. Open Tennis Betting Preview

by Bodog Sportsbook | Aug 31 2009

We've come to the end of another summer of sports betting. Golf has already held all four of its major tournaments, and tennis is about to wrap up its Grand Slam with the U.S. Open, starting Monday at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, N.Y.

Roger Federer is the defending and five-time champion at the U.S. Open, and he's the 1-1 favorite to grab his sixth title in a row. Rival Rafael Nadal took nearly three months away from competition to rest his sore knees before coming back to the ATP Tour, losing a quarterfinal matchup to No. 6 Juan Martin Del Potro earlier this month in Montreal. Then Nadal fell to Novak Djokovic in the semis in Cincinnati. Both matches were in straight sets, leaving Nadal the third seed at Flushing Meadows and the third favorite at 13-2.

Wedged in between the two is Scottish upstart Andy Murray at 10-3. Murray has yet to win a major tournament, but he beat Del Potro in Montreal for his fifth ATP title of the season. He also has a 6-3 lifetime record over Federer, and he beat Nadal for the first time in seven attempts at last year's U.S. Open - that was in the semifinals, before losing the championship to Federer in straight sets.

Murray has a 31-2 record on hard courts this year; however, those two losses were to Federer two weeks ago in Cincinnati and to Nadal back in March at Indian Wells. So the Scotsman is understandably being overshadowed in the press by the renewal of the Federer-Nadal rivalry. That makes Murray an intriguing value pick in this situation. It's also pretty rare to be able to bet on Nadal at odds this long. He took the world's No. 1 spot from Federer last year after beating him at Wimbledon (grass being Federer's preferred surface) and held it until this July, after he lost to No. 25 Robin Soderling at the French Open (clay being Nadal's favorite). Federer won at Roland Garros and took over the No. 1 ranking while Nadal was resting his knees.

Meanwhile, fifth seed Andy Roddick is available at 11-1 (tied with fourth seed Novak Djokovic) and is looking more like his old self after extending Federer to five dramatic sets at the 2009 Wimbledon final. For all his success, Roddick has only one Grand Slam title: the 2003 U.S. Open, where he beat Juan Carlos Ferrero in the finals. Roddick was replaced as the world's No. 1 by Federer the following year. It's been tough sledding for Roddick ever since, and although he came within an eyelash of beating Federer at Wimbledon, he's lost twice to Del Potro (12-1) since then and once to No. 22 Sam Querrey, at the event in Cincinnati.

Federer has both Roddick and Djokovic in his half of the men's bracket, while Nadal has Murray and Del Potro. But if all goes according to plan, Roddick and Djokovic will face each other in the quarterfinals before the winner meets Federer in the semis. Same goes for Murray and Del Potro in Nadal's half of the draw. Nadal will be pleased if he can avoid facing Del Potro, who beat him in the quarterfinals at both Montreal and at the ATP's Miami event in March.

There's less buzz on the women's side this year, in part because the unfashionably vanilla Dinara Safina (10-1) continues to hold down the No. 1 seed on the WTA Tour, even though No. 2 Serena Williams (the 7-4 favorite) crushed her at the Australian Open before going on to win Wimbledon. Serena was able to overcome sister Venus (5-1) on the grass courts of the All-England Club, where Venus usually does her best work - she has five Wimbledon titles to two U.S. Opens, the last in 2001. Serena and No. 3 Venus are in the same half of the women's draw for the Open, so no all-Williams final this time.

Maria Sharapova (10-1) has been battling shoulder issues in 2009, but she's showing signs of recovery, reaching the finals at the WTA event in Toronto before losing to Elena Dementieva (7-1). This could be your best value pick right here: Dementieva beat Serena in the semis and is 5-2 against her since 2007, including 3-1 this year on hard courts. They are on opposite sides of the U.S. Open draw and could definitely meet in the finals.

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