U.S. Open Tennis: Finals Weekend (Weather Permitting)
by Bodog Sportsbook | Sep 11 2009
Into every handicapper's life, a little rain must fall.
Tennis fans were left hanging on Thursday night when the skies opened up over Flushing Meadows, forcing the postponement of Rafael Nadal's quarterfinal matchup against Fernando Gonzalez at the
2009 U.S. Open. Nadal was up 7-6, 6-6 (3-2) in a closely fought contest. The postponement is good news for Nadal; in addition to his ongoing knee issues, the No. 3 seed has an injured stomach muscle that needed attention during the first set. The rain is expected to continue on Friday.
The delay in proceedings only adds to the dramatic tension. Nadal was a -500 favorite in this match against Gonzalez (+330), the No. 11 seed at the U.S. Open and the silver medal winner at the Beijing Olympics. This was a value situation for Gonzalez simply because Nadal's reputation (recent World’s No. 1, six majors on the resume) is bigger than his limited physical ability at this point. But again, that extra enforced rest means Nadal will be more able to live up to his potential.
If Nadal does advance to the semis, he'll face rising star Juan Martin del Potro, who downed Marin Cilic in four sets before the weather gods put an end to the proceedings. Del Potro is the No. 6 seed and has beaten the hobbled Nadal twice in a row, at ATP Tour stops in Miami and Montreal (both on hard surfaces). The futures market at press time had Del Potro pegged at 6-1 to win the U.S. Open compared to 9-2 for Nadal. Except for the weather, things are working out very well for Del Potro supporters.
There's also this guy named Roger Federer you may have heard about. The top seed is already in the semis after defeating No. 12 Robin Soderling in four sets on Wednesday, and he'll meet No. 4 Novak Djokovic once weather permits. Federer is 8-4 lifetime versus Djokovic, with losses this year on the clay at Rome and the hard court at Miami.
Betting odds at press time had Federer as a –450 favorite in this matchup with Djokovic at +300. The temptation is to jump on the underdog, but both of Djokovic’s ATP victories were in three-set matches. Federer beat Djokovic in four sets at the 2008 U.S. Open semis and in three sets at the 2007 finals.
The big story in the women's draw was the emergence of 17-year-old American Melanie Oudin. The World's No. 70-ranked woman upset No. 4 Elena Dementieva, No. 29 Maria Sharapova, and No. 13 Nadia Petrova before finally bowing to No. 9 Caroline Wozniacki 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. Sharp bettors flocked to Oudin after she proved herself against Dementieva, but looking ahead, Oudin won't be sneaking up to the pay window after making the talk show rounds and signing endorsement deals.
Sharps were also happy to side with Kim Clijsters after the former World's No. 1 ended her two-year retirement and quickly disposed of Viktoriya Kutuzova 6-1, 6-1 in the first round. Clijsters went on to bounce Venus Williams in three sets in the quarterfinals. Odds at press time had Clijsters at +200 in her semifinal matchup against Serena Williams (-275). Depending on the weather, this match may already be over by the time you read this. If not, Clijsters was the 2005 U.S. Open champion, but has a 1-7 lifetime record versus Serena (0-7 on hard courts) and hasn't met her since 2003.
