NBA Playoffs Update

by Bodog Sportsbook | May 20 2009

The NBA is not known for its Cinderella stories. The four remaining teams in the 2009 Playoffs include both the No. 1 seeds, plus a two and a three in yet another display of the cream rising to the top. Bettors seem to be quite content to take the chalk in both conference finals, although significantly less so in the West.

Eastern Conference

Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

(All games at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT)

Game 1: Wednesday, May 20
Game 2: Friday, May 22
Game 3: Sunday, May 24
Game 4: Tuesday, May 26
Game 5: Thursday, May 28
Game 6: Saturday, May 30
Game 7: Monday, June 1

Orlando: 67-28 SU, 55-39-1 ATS, Under 55-40
Cleveland: 74-16 SU, 57-32-1 ATS, Under 51-38-1
Season Series: Orlando 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, Under 2-1

Orlando injuries: Jameer Nelson (shoulder)
Cleveland injuries: J.J. Hickson (back), Lorenzen Wright (thumb)

Good health is very much on Cleveland's side this year. The Boston Celtics proved to be less than elite without Kevin Garnett, though they were still good enough to extend the Magic to seven games in the last round. This is an Orlando team that's also missing an All-Star: point guard Jameer Nelson. The difference between Nelson and Rafer Alston shows up in this year's plus-minus stats for Orlando's five-man rotations. In the 415 minutes Alston led the first unit on the floor, the Magic outscored opponents by 21 points. With Nelson, they were plus-120 in 256 minutes.

Courtney Lee has been re-named Orlando's starter at shooting guard, taking over for J.J. Redick. But don't be surprised to see a greater share of minutes go to Mickael Pietrus as a defensive shadow for LeBron James. Pietrus doesn't have much consistency on offense, so the more he plays, the lower the scores. The under is a sizzling 22-8 in Orlando's last 30 games as they prepare to face one of the top defensive teams in the NBA.

Western Conference

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Game 2: Thursday, May 21, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3: Saturday, May 23, 8:30 p.m. (ABC)
Game 4: Monday, May 25, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 5: Wednesday, May 27, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 6: Friday, May 29, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 7: Sunday, May 31, 8:30 p.m. (ABC)

Denver: 62-31 SU, 55-37-1 ATS, Over 48-45
Los Angeles: 74-21 SU, 49-46 ATS, Under 48-46-1
Season Series: Los Angeles 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, Under 3-1

Denver injuries: J.R. Smith (knee), Steven Hunter (knee)
Los Angeles injuries: None

We've got a live one here, folks. Game 1 of this series went Tuesday night at Staples Center, and it took a late surge by the Lakers to secure a 105-103 victory in front of a crowd that took its time to get into the spirit of things, just like the Lakers themselves. Denver (+7) stayed true to form by cashing in and improving to 11-0 ATS in the playoffs. Coaches Phil Jackson and George Karl shuffled their rotations looking for the right matchups, but the game was decided in the end at the free-throw line, where Denver was 23-of-35 and Los Angeles was 20-of-24.

J.R. Smith (2-of-5 from behind the arc, 2-of-6 from the foul line) hit the deck on the last play of the game and was diagnosed with a sprained right knee. The injury doesn't appear to be of much concern to Coach Karl, who called it a hyperextension and says Smith will be fine. We'll be the judge of that on Thursday. As a jump shooter, Smith needs all the lift he can get, and Denver needs his 39.7-percent rate from behind the arc to continue unabated.

Preview: Orlando at Cleveland, Game 1

At press time, the Cavaliers were 9-point favorites (-115) for Wednesday night's opener. We'll have live betting available as the TNT crew guides us through the proceedings. These were the top two money teams in the NBA this year; Orlando has been more profitable on the road at 31-17 SU and 29-18-1 ATS, while Cleveland has done its best work in front of the home faithful at 43-2 SU and 32-13 ATS.

The under trends are impossible to ignore in this matchup. We already mentioned Orlando's 22-8 run on the under; this juicy bet is also 14-5-1 in Cleveland's last 20 home games and 4-1 in their last five games with Orlando at the former Gund Arena. This series features the two best defenders in the league according to the sportswriters who voted Howard Defensive Player of the Year in front of James. When Alston and Pietrus are in the Magic backcourt together, buckets are hard to come by at either end.

Orlando's solution during the regular season was to let if fly, and in three games against Cleveland (the stingiest perimeter defense in the league) the Magic hit nearly 40 percent of their trey attempts at 34-of-86. That's their proverbial puncher's chance for stealing Game 1.

Preview: Denver at Los Angeles, Game 2

Game 1 confirmed much of what we expected going into this series. The Nuggets were physically more aggressive than L.A. and got to the line more often. Dahntay Jones was a plus-3 in his 16 minutes of shadowing Kobe Bryant, but the 2008 MVP was able to mount a fourth-quarter comeback (despite a dislocated right ring finger) and finished the day with 40 points. In the end, Denver bagged the cash, which would be a strategic default bet for Game 2 unless new information comes down the pipeline.

Tuesday's matchup went under the total of 214, and the under deserves continued attention depending on the line for Thursday's game - visit Bodog Sports for the latest odds. The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between Denver and L.A. The underdog-under parlay would be a reasonable call here in my humble opinion; if you're looking for a 4-leg NBA parlay, adding the Cavs with the under from Wednesday night is a viable option. Make sure to check out our team props and player props for other betting possibilities this week and make the sharpest choices possible.

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