NFL point spreads are not the handicapper's predicted margin-of-victory, but are in fact the handicapper's opinion of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. Here is a little more detail on how NFL point spreads are derived and what you need to know to take advantage of the numbers.
Linesmakers are divided into two groups, oddsmakers and bookmakers. Oddsmakers deal in a theoretical world because they don't actually take bets on the lines that they publish. Oddsmakers make their money by selling their lines to media outlets, sportsbooks, etc. These are the NFL point spreads you see in your local newspaper or hear on the radio. The lines don't change very much from day to day, because there are no direct wagers placed on these lines, and as such, there are no line moves required to try and balance action. On the other hand, bookmakers deal very much in the real world, as they take bets on the NFL point spreads they publish. These lines then move as a result of wagering, because the books seek to balance action in an effort to minimize risk and maximize the vig (commission) collected.
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This fundamental difference is one of the main reasons that the NFL point spreads you see in your newspaper are not the same lines you get when you deal with a sportsbook. It is worth mentioning that time is also a factor. The lines in your paper were probably accurate when they were submitted to the editor, but in the amount of time that passes from pre-production to when you read the paper, injuries, weather and other factors can dramatically shift the spread.
Linesmakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the right NFL point spreads. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air (I've met a couple of guys like this who look at next week's schedule and say "they'll be a five-point favorite" and sure enough the line will open at 4.5!). However, most linesmakers use power ratings or some derivation. Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate NFL point spreads. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success.
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Some sportsbooks base all their NFL point spreads on their own internal linemaking, but the majority of books rely either solely on oddsmaking services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping.
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